Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
